And We’re Back!
Week 1 is a strange thing. We spend months trying to work out what teams are going to look like, get one game of evidence, and immediately start behaving as though we’ve got the whole league figured out, I’m as guilty of it as the next person.
We see a new coordinator unveil something that works, a Defence has a dreadful afternoon, or an Offense suddenly looks like it has solved a problem that’s been hanging around for years. It’s tempting to assume that’s the new normal, well, by tempting I don’t necessarily mean ‘tempting’ (looking at you Bengals’ apparently improved Defence), but we let our mindsets shift rather quickly.
The second week is where things get a little more interesting. Opponents have fresh film, coaches have a better idea of what their own teams can execute, and we start to see whether those opening week performances were a new dawn, or simply one game’s worth of football.
There are a few things on my list this weekend I’ll be keeping my eye on. Some are specific coaching matchups, others are broader trends that may tell us something about where the league is heading.
Ben Johnson vs Brian Flores: Pressure Meets Its Counter
There’s something rather enjoyable about a matchup between an offensive coach who wants to manufacture answers and a defensive coach who seems determined to make every answer wrong. Brian Flores’ defence is built around making life uncomfortable for quarterbacks. The Vikings can threaten pressure from multiple positions, disguise who is actually coming and force an offence to make protection decisions before the picture becomes clear. Ben Johnson’s challenge is to prevent that picture from becoming Caleb Williams’ problem alone.
I’ll be watching Chicago’s use of motion and formations before the snap. Can Johnson identify Minnesota’s intentions early enough to get Williams into the right play and are there quick throws available when pressure arrives? Can the Bears punish an aggressive linebacker with a screen or a route into the space he’s just vacated? One answer may be to try to run Flores and his Defence out of the pressure looks I would guarantee he starts with. If any run game has that chance, it is Ben Johnson’s.
There’s also the question of protection. Keeping a tight end or running back in to help might give Williams another second, but it removes a potential receiving option. That’s a trade-off Flores will be perfectly happy to force, have you ever seen a coach place quite so much trust in a group of (relatively) no name DBs?. This game will ultimately come down to whether or not Johnson, and by extension, Caleb Williams, is able to deal with Brian Flores’ vast array of blitzes. Oh, and whether or not Carson Wentz has enough left in the tank to take advantage of what looks to be a very poor Bears Defence.
It isn’t about whether the Vikings are able to get pressure, this game will hinge on how well Chicago responds to them. That said, this Bears Offense is a different, evolved beast this year. The result, this game could be absolute fireworks!
The 13 Personnel Experiment: Can Defences Stay Light?
The end of last season, and certainly the start of this, sees the return of heavier offensive personnel, particularly formations featuring three tight ends. On paper, the attraction is straightforward. Put more size on the field, make the defence respect the run and potentially force it to replace a defensive back with a linebacker. If one of those tight ends is a capable receiver, you’ve suddenly created a matchup advantage.
Of course, it isn’t quite that simple. A tight end who is effectively a large wide receiver doesn’t necessarily give you the blocking advantage that makes the formation threatening in the first place, see Mike Gesicki in Cincinnati and subsequently, why everyone is so excited that Eric All Jr is healthy. A Defence with the right personnel might be perfectly comfortable staying in nickel, trusting its front to handle the run.
That’s what makes 13 personnel so interesting to watch. The Offense is trying to force the Defence into a choice, but the Defence doesn’t necessarily have to play along. If it can stop the run with five defensive backs on the field, the supposed matchup advantage disappears. Equally, if those tight ends can genuinely block and threaten as receivers, staying light becomes a much less comfortable proposition.
The Minter Defence – Week 2
There was plenty to like about Baltimore’s defence against Indianapolis, and not just because the Colts were held to 251 total yards. The Ravens looked more disruptive, generating two sacks, 10 quarterback hits and two turnovers. Trey Hendrickson didn’t record a sack himself, but his eight pressures were a reminder that a pass rusher can influence a game without appearing in the sack column. More encouragingly, Jesse Minter’s defence showed an ability to create pressure while keeping enough defenders in coverage. In fact, they generated pressure at one of the highest rates in week 1.
Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit last week, but he also threw two interceptions, took five sacks and was pressured 22 times. Can Minter disguise where the rush is coming from, force Shough into hurried decisions and prevent him from escaping into the spaces left behind, I hope so. There are still things to tidy up, particularly after Jonathan Taylor rumbled for 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. One good week doesn’t erase last season’s frustrations, but another organised, disruptive performance would give us a little more reason to believe the defensive changes are taking hold.
Can Houston’s Front Four Beat Joe Burrow
There’s a particular satisfaction in watching a defensive line take over a game without needing much help. Houston have the personnel to do exactly that, with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter capable of making life miserable for opposing tackles. Against Joe Burrow though, simply getting upfield won’t be enough. Burrow is excellent at recognising pressure and getting the ball out before it arrives, so the Texans need to disrupt his timing rather than just chase sacks. Even forcing him to move off his spot or hold the ball for an extra beat could be enough to throw Cincinnati’s passing game out of rhythm.
The real attraction of generating pressure with four is what it allows Houston to do behind them. If the Texans can leave seven defenders in coverage, they have more bodies available to deal with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins without constantly exposing themselves to one-on-one matchups. That’s particularly important against a quarterback who will happily punish a blitz if he knows where the space has opened up. Houston don’t necessarily need Anderson and Hunter to win every snap, they need the threat of those two to work alongside disciplined coverage and make Burrow’s usual answers a little less straightforward.
Of course, there’s a balance to strike. An aggressive rush can create escape lanes, while dropping seven into coverage achieves very little if Burrow has all afternoon to find someone. If the Texans can hurry Burrow, while keeping their coverage intact, they’ll have a chance to dictate how Cincinnati plays. If they can’t, giving him time to work through his options with Chase and Higgins on the field sounds like a rather unpleasant afternoon.
Carolina’s (Run) Defence
Finally, I want to spend some time watching Carolina’s defence. They were absolutely torched by the Bears last week, and their run Defence particularly, looked awful. Carolina didn’t just struggle against the run in Week 1, Chicago ran for 291 yards at 7.5 yards a carry and scored six rushing touchdowns. Swift and Monangai both cleared 100 yards, while Caleb Williams added another 65 and two scores. Against Atlanta, the question isn’t simply how Carolina plans to contain Bijan Robinson. It’s whether its defensive front can stop the run without constantly having to commit to heavy boxes.
For the Panthers to have a shot in this game they need to find some way to contain Bijan. If they can’t contain him, then they at least need to make sure that they don’t let him win the week for Atlanta single-handedly. If they can control Bijan, and ask Cooper Rush to have to win the game for the Falcons with his arm I’d favour the Panthers to pull out the win.
The Panthers are the better team, with the better overall roster. In BIjan though, the Falcons have one of the league’s stars. He is capable of winning this game on his own and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see him pass 200 yards from scrimmage and to pick up a couple of touchdowns. For the first time in a while, it isn’t whether Bryce Young can do enough to win the game, it is whether his Defence, who played well at the back end of last year, can pull their weight.
Final Thoughts
I’ll be back on Tuesday to work through what actually happened.
There’s every chance the most interesting thing I watch won’t be on this list. I would almost guarantee it. That’s why we love this sport. Any given Sunday just about anything can happen.
Food watch this week, still no roast dinner. Instead I will be testing out lasagna soup. I know, it sounds odd but man does it look good!
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