Week 3 Already!
The week started with the frustration of the Ravens throwing away an eminently winnable game against a good, but not great, Saints team. That said, after two weeks of the new season there are a lot of things I am excited for, and honestly, I’m not worried about the Ravens at all at this point.
We are starting to see teams really set out what we can expect from them this season, for better or worse. Whilst poor starts are not fatal, the stats tell us that only 12% of teams who start 0-2 make the playoffs. If the Falcons’ match against Green Bay has anything to tell us, they are determined to be in that 12%. With players like Bijan and London, they may have the weapons to do just that, as long as Michael Penix can continue to improve on what looked like a good start back from a third ACL tear. The Huskies fan in me would love to see it.
It’s that time of the week where I turn an eye to what I’m looking out for in these weekend’s games. Narratives, or at least the shoots of such, that I’ll be looking to see carry through, or not.
Imagine When They Really Catch Fire!
The Bengals are 2-0. That’s probably worth saying at the outset because Cincinnati starting a season well still feels slightly unnatural. Joe Burrow hasn’t exactly been setting the world alight either, 461 yards and three touchdowns through two games is fine, but it’s hardly the start you’d expect to have us all talking about this passing game.
What has stood out, though, is Tee Higgins. We spend so much time talking about Ja’Marr Chase, and understandably so, that Higgins can almost feel like an afterthought at times. Through two games though it’s Higgins leading Cincinnati with 154 yards, averaging over 19 yards a catch. Chase, meanwhile, has 87. Week 1 was particularly strange, Chase finishing with just two catches for 12 yards while Higgins quietly went about his business on the other side.
Then Week 2 looked a little more like what we’re used to. Chase had seven catches, 75 yards and caught both of Burrow’s touchdowns, Higgins added another 95 and suddenly you’re reminded of the problem Cincinnati creates. Houston sacked Burrow five times and made life uncomfortable for him for most of the afternoon, and he still had those two available whenever Cincinnati needed something.
I’m not about to sit here after two games and suggest Higgins has suddenly become the number one receiver in Cincinnati. He hasn’t. But that’s sort of the point. Chase hasn’t really got going yet and the Bengals are still 2-0, with Higgins producing 154 yards in the meantime. At some point Chase is going to properly arrive. Having Higgins on the other side when he does feels slightly unfair. If the defence continues to hold up their end of the bargain, then this Bengals team may buck the trend of scrambling for (and normally missing) the playoffs.
The NFC North
At the start of the season I said I thought that one of the NFC North teams would start to stand out fairly quickly. I hoped it was the Vikings, and after two weeks I’m happy with the early returns. Last week’s slogfest in the rain was not pretty on the scoreboard but Brian Flores’ Defence basically did whatever they wanted to against Ben Johnson’s Bears team. Carson Wentz has done what was asked of him, and with the rest of the division producing a mixed bag to say the least, 2-0 is a good place to sit.
Speaking of mixed bags, what is going on in Green Bay?! That’s theoretical really, the answer lies up front with a sieve-like offensive line and basically no run game to speak of. Week 3 has already been an embarrassment for the Packers’ organisation, losing a second game by more than 17 points already in this young season. I’m not sure any of us saw Josh Jacobs’ absence being quite so impactful. Yes, they’ve had injuries up front but, regardless, oof.
The Lions and Bears at 1-1 are less certain. Both teams could do with strengthening their respective defences and Bears fans will be hoping to see Caleb Williams back sooner rather than later. It’s still early but Vikings fans have every reason to be optimistic at this point.
Coen’s Renaissance
Although the Jags lost last weekend to the Broncos, they look a team reborn over the second half of last season and the start of this. Liam Coen has Lawrence playing to the ability everyone expected when he came out of Clemson, and Parker Washington may have to go down as the biggest surprise of the last year.
The Jags are now 9–2 across their last 11 regular-season games, a run stretching back to Week 11 of last season. In a division where the Texans have faltered so far, and the Colts and Titans appear no threat, the Jags have a very real shot at the #1 seed. They have a tough game against Drake Maye’s Patriots this weekend, but I see no reason they can’t come away with the win.
The only issue that may hold them back deeper in the season is the offensive line. After a standout Week 1, it came back to earth last week. Lawrence’s pressure rate went from 24% in Week 1 to 45.2% in Week 2, while four of Jacksonville’s five linemen went from PFF pass-blocking grades of 73.5+ to four of five grading below 60.
Instant Impacts
Two games isn’t much of a sample size, but it’s enough to see when someone has made an immediate difference. Dexter Lawrence is probably the standout to date. Cincinnati’s defence looked improved in Week 1, then against Houston they held the Texans without a touchdown and their running backs to just 18 yards on 14 carries. Lawrence only registered three tackles, but that’s rather missing the point. Houston had to account for him on virtually every snap and C.J. Stroud was pressured on 43.5% of his dropbacks. The Bengals suddenly have a defensive front that looks like a problem.
Trey Hendrickson had four pressures in his Ravens debut, then followed that up with his first Baltimore sack against New Orleans. The Ravens lost, so this one doesn’t look quite as pretty, but through two weeks they’ve allowed just 274.5 yards per game, sixth-best in the NFL. Hendrickson gives them something they badly needed, someone who can consistently win off the edge without Baltimore having to manufacture pressure.
Kenneth Walker might be the most obvious difference of the lot. After running for 173 yards against Denver, he went for another 117 against Indianapolis, plus 61 receiving. That’s 369 yards from scrimmage in two games. We’ve spent years watching teams invite Kansas City to run the football while worrying about Mahomes. I’m not entirely sure that’s a particularly appealing option anymore.
A couple of honourable mentions here as well. Gervon Dexter has quietly made a difference to that Falcons defensive front, with 15 pressures through three games, according to Next Gen Stats, and a pass rush win rate north of 25%. Atlanta suddenly look capable of creating pressure without constantly having to blitz, and Dexter has been a big part of that.
Then there’s Jaylen Waddle in Denver. The numbers haven’t been enormous yet, but that’s not really why they brought him in. Denver desperately needed someone who could threaten teams vertically and Waddle has already shown that, including the 49-yarder in Week 2. Sometimes just having that speed on the field changes what a defence can get away with.
Into The Swing Of It
I’ve hit a familiar stride at this point. In the UK Thursday Night Football doesn’t start until the early hours, so the first thing I do when I wake up is watch back that game. Then I’ll draft out the week’s First Down over Friday and Saturday. Whilst the site is fairly new, the pattern isn’t a new one, there is a certain familiarity to it.
I’ve enjoyed getting back into writing regularly, and whilst there aren’t many eyes on it at the moment, that isn’t really the point. It’s just relishing getting my thoughts out, and I am grateful for the engagement I’m already getting from the people who do read my articles.
This NFL weekend will mainly consist of praying that the Ravens (and Cowboys I suppose) get out of Brazil with no injuries. That pitch clearly isn’t great and nobody wants avoidable injuries, certainly not in the name of the forced International Series. If the Ravens could give me a stress-free win, then even better. For those of you who play fantasy football, good luck, unless it’s against me. If that’s the case I hope you suffer the least productive week of your season!
As always, if you’ve got to this point, thank you. I hope you enjoyed. If so, please do feel free to tell all your friends!